This week’s stock shocks as of 20th February, 2026

Walmart beat earnings, announced a $30 billion buyback, crossed $700 billion in annual revenue for the first time, and the stock still fell. That’s the kind of week it was. The S&P 500 strung together a three-day win streak through Wednesday, only to give it all back on Thursday as hawkish Fed minutes, Iran tensions, and Walmart’s cautious FY27 guidance conspired to flip the mood from hopeful to defensive. The Dow shed roughly 270 points on Thursday alone. The Nasdaq extended a brutal February for tech. And the CNN Fear & Greed Index stayed firmly in “Fear” territory—not neutral, not undecided, but genuinely nervous.

This was a week that rewarded patience and punished conviction. Deere exploded higher on an earnings blowout. Booking Holdings dropped on mixed guidance. And Walmart’s quarter perfectly captured the market’s central tension: the consumer is still spending, but corporate America doesn’t trust the setup enough to guide aggressively. That disconnect between “fine right now” and “worried about what’s next” defined every session.

---

🔔 Don’t miss out!

Add winvestacrisps@substack.com to your email list so our updates never land in your spam folder.

---

Market recap 📊

The week’s price action told a story in two halves: quiet optimism, then a Thursday reality check.

Monday through Wednesday was a grind higher. The S&P 500 climbed steadily, closing Wednesday at roughly 6,881 after gaining about 0.6% on the day. The Nasdaq added 0.8% to close near 22,754, buoyed by Nvidia’s 1.6% rise after Meta announced a massive deal to use millions of Nvidia’s AI chips. The Dow hit around 49,663. It felt constructive—nothing spectacular, but markets were banking gains ahead of Walmart’s Thursday morning report and Friday’s critical PCE inflation data.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes changed the temperature. The Fed revealed a divided committee, with several officials signalling they’d consider further tightening if inflation proves persistent. The minutes explicitly noted that “disinflation may take longer”—hardly the dovish reassurance markets wanted. Yields climbed. The dollar firmed. But stocks somehow held, with investors waiting for Walmart’s earnings before making their next move.

Thursday was the reckoning. Walmart reported before the open: Q4 revenue of $190.7 billion beat the $190.4 billion consensus, EPS of $0.74 topped the $0.73 estimate. Solid. But the FY27 adjusted EPS guidance landed like a wet blanket—$2.75–$2.85, up from the prior year’s $2.64 but still below the Street’s roughly $2.96 expectation. The stock initially tanked in pre-market, recovered to gain as much as 2.7% intraday, then reversed to close down roughly 1.4% at $124.87. Add Iran tensions—Trump didn’t rule out military intervention—and a wider-than-expected trade deficit of $70.3 billion, and risk-off took hold. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to close near 6,862. The Dow dropped roughly 268 points (0.5%) to 49,395. The Nasdaq fell 0.3% to around 22,683. Eight of the 11 S&P sectors finished in the red.

By Friday morning, futures were flat as the market held its breath for the PCE print—the week’s true final boss.

---

Sentiment watch: Fear holds its grip 😶‍🌫️

The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in “Fear” territory for much of the week—a reading that’s persisted through most of February. This wasn’t the neutral, “wait-and-see” posture of January. This was genuine caution. The VIX hovered around and at times above 20, a threshold that signals elevated volatility expectations. The S&P 500’s RSI sat in the high 40s—nowhere near overbought, but not showing buying conviction either.

What’s driving the fear? It’s cumulative. A string of losing weeks for the Nasdaq heading into this one. A tech rotation that’s wiped out billions. Amazon is shedding hundreds of billions in market cap during a roughly nine-session slide earlier this month on AI capex concerns. Software stocks hitting fresh 52-week lows left and right—HubSpot, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Atlassian, all cratering. When the growth darlings of the last cycle are getting systematically de-rated, even good earnings from Walmart and Deere can’t fully lift the mood.

The market wants to go higher. But every rally attempt this month has been sold. That’s not indecision—that’s distribution.